2022年上半年房地产、规模减半料三季度局部回暖跌幅收窄

上半年先跌后企稳，预计三季度规模减半。

◎文/科瑞研究中心

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2022年上半年楼市仍将“艰难”，疫情的不确定性影响将使本已低迷的楼市“雪上加霜”。 4-5月，各地陆续出台宽松政策“救市”，稳定了业主基调。 ，整体供需开始出现回暖迹象。 6月份环比涨幅继续收窄，同比降幅继续收窄。南京、苏州、佛山等核心城市市场热度稳步回升，新政策效果开始显现。

预判后市，考虑到疫情阶段性控制和政策持续发力的积极影响，总体供需仍有望稳步回升。由于去年下半年市场“大跌”基数较低，下半年成交量同比降幅也将呈现稳步收窄的趋势，全年成交规模预计从高位回落，较2021年回落15%-20%。不同城市继续分化，核心一二线市场成交有望保持上升趋势。降级压力主要集中在部分弱势二三线城市，前期透支严重，缺乏基本面支撑。

总结

1

市场概况：先跌后企，规模减半，区域、城市、项目分化加剧

（本节有删节）

2022年上半年，房地产市场经历了由下行趋势加剧到稳底的过程。 1-2月，商品房销售面积和产值同比分别下降9.6%和19.3%，增速降至历年第二低7年。到4月份，国内疫情影响明显大于预期，经济新的下行压力进一步加大。房地产行业销售和投资双双负增长。

5月份，行业主要指标开始好转。单月新房销售和开发投资规模环比分别增长26%和14%。商品房销售均价、新开工面积和购地面积分别环比上涨3%、20%和46%。行业已触及“市场底部”并出现实质性好转，市场信心开始复苏。

在投资方面，房地产企业深陷自身资金压力和融资困境，投资行为明显放缓。 5月份随着各地资金监管的放松，房企到位资金环比上升。因此，房企积极投资再投资，加快住房建设，及时恢复建设强度。尤其是亮眼的新房开工和土地购置，两项指标环比大幅上涨，成为整体投资的支撑力量。但需要注意的是，5月份的开发投资规模仍为2022年第二低，新屋销售尚未完全恢复，行业投资仍处于历史低位。

在销售方面，随着政策的放松，居民购房信心逐渐恢复。在多市四限政策出台、首付和首付压力减轻后，购房需求逐渐恢复和释放。截至6月12日，全国共有175个省市出台2022年调控政策299项，共计627项。同时，5月份全国商品房销售均价为9615元/平方米，环比上涨3%。因此，5月份商品房销售触底回升，环比回升。主要原因是各省市调控放宽政策“脱节”，频次和力度有效触动购房者，放弃等待入市买房。从销售均价的回升来看，“以价换量”对销售规模回升的贡献度较低。 5月份商品房销售量实现全年首次环比增长，商品房销售总量10970万平方米，销售额10548亿元，环比增长26%和30% -月分别。同比分别下降31.8%和37.7%，降幅较4月份收窄7.2pcts和8.9pcts。

细化到区域市场，长三角、粤港澳、中西部、环渤海等市场差异显着：长三角楼市在短暂的春天后重回低迷。有所回升，但单月同比下降67%，领跌。粤港澳大湾区成交量低位运行，1-4月同比降幅在50%左右，5月降幅明显收窄至39%，主要是由于深圳、佛山等部分城市成交量持续高企。恢复过程不如预期。中西部地区市场明显消退。 2月份以来，成交量同比降幅逐月扩大，5月份一直稳定在59%。环渤海部分地区回暖，但其他区域市场依然低迷，整体成交量同比下降44%。

2

新增供应：上半年创3年同期新低，几乎“减半”，6月小幅回升

（本节有删节）

1.先跌后平，低位震荡，月度和累计同比跌幅继续收窄

据克而瑞统计，2022年1-5月，全国100个重点城市商品房新增供应面积9654万平方米，同比下降48%，新增自 2019 年以来的同期低点。

从月度表现来看，2月供应因传统春节明显减少，月供应量仅为733万平方米。不过，“金三银四”房企推货动力依然不大，月供应量基本在2200万-2600万平方米之间波动。 5月，再次下降至1876万平方米。从同比数据变化看，月度同比和累计同比波动均呈下降趋势，目前处于阶段性低位。 ，在 5 月份分别稳定在 53% 和 48%。

通过6月30个重点城市的供给数据测算，可以看出，年中房企抢业绩，推货步伐明显加快。 6月份总体供应量继续增加，30个城市新建商品房供应量环比增长37%。 .

2.一线回弹力强，同比小幅回落，三四线波动首当其冲，跌幅超过50%

（本节有删节）

从不同能级城市供给占比变化来看，一线波动上升趋势因疫情“戛然而止”。 2022年1-3月，供给占比基本在10%左右波动，4月小幅回升至14%。 ，5月再次跌至8%；二线城市表现“温和”，供给比例稳定在50%左右，5月上升至55%，而三四线城市继续小幅下滑，供给持续萎缩。降至 38%。

图：2021年1月至2022年5月不同能级城市新增商品房月供应面积占比变化（略）

具体来看，前5个月一线城市新增供应面积1027万平方米，同比下降2%，与2019年同期基本持平，较2020年同期增长22%。二线城市整体供应面积4537万平方米，同比增长49%，环比下降40%以上与2020年和2019年同期相比，三四线城市整体供应面积4090万平方米，同比下降53%，同比下降39%和51%。分别为 2020 年和 2019 年同期。

值得注意的是，通过6月30个重点城市的供给数据测算，6月一线城市受疫情影响逐渐得到控制，整体供给稳中有升，环比环比上升。增长85%，同比下降11%，上半年同比增长。小幅下跌 4%。二三线环比反弹31%，同比下降45%，累计同比下降48%。不同城市的分化继续加剧。

3.成都头把交椅同比重回正数，疫情后复苏供给区位居前10

（本节有删节）

2022年前5个月，成都供应面积475万平方米，排名第一，同比增长9%。从横向对比来看，2021年成都甚至没有入榜，入榜门槛为468万平方米。可见，成都的供给有自己的节奏。在大部分城市供应疲软的情况下，成都的优势开始凸显。

值得注意的是，一线表现可圈可点。即便受到疫情不确定性的影响加拿大28群，广州、上海、北京的开工积极性也丝毫不减，供应面积依然位居前十。武汉、青岛、惠州排名下降，重庆、徐州、佛山、天津跌出榜单。

表：2022年1-5月商品房供应面积TOP10城市（单位：万平方米）（略）

聚焦6月成交数据，一线城市中，沪深两市全力以赴，供应量环比“翻番”。上海迎来静控后上市高峰期；北京和广州的供应量也环比增加了 30%。二三线城市中，合肥、重庆、郑州、海口、厦门等地供给明显升级，环比增长超过120%，而苏州、无锡、徐州、东莞、福州等东南沿海城市不增反降；值得关注的还有成都，6月份供应量达到224万平方米，累计同比增长36%，明显好于2021年同期。

3

新房成交：6月在利好政策叠加下，累计同比跌幅保持平稳

（本节有删节）

1.月均交易额低位震荡2300万元，单月同比跌幅继续收窄

CRIC统计数据显示，2022年1-5月，全国100个典型城市商品房总成交面积11578万平方米，同比下降51%。与2020年和2019年同期相比，降幅分别达到24%和38%。

从月度走势来看，受年初春节影响，交易惯性下降。尽管它在 3 月份略有回升，但在 4 月份再次下跌。 5月小幅增加至2325万平方米，同比收窄至55%。 1 个百分点至 51%。

通过测算6月30个重点城市的成交数据，不难发现，由于供给增加和利好政策叠加，购房信心稳步回升。 30个典型城市总成交面积达到1716万平方米，环比增长21%，同比下降43%，累计同比降幅收窄至49%。

2.一线占比震荡下行，二线“半壁江山”，三四线小幅回落

（本节有删节）

从不同能级城市成交占比的变化来看，受疫情不确定性影响，2月以来一线城市整体成交占比由升转降，到 5 月底已降至 7%；二线城市向来占成交“半壁江山”，走势稳中有升，三四线呈现小幅下滑，5月占比41%。

图：2021年1月至2022年5月不同能级城市新商品住宅月成交面积占比变化（略）

从能级看，前5个月一线城市成交面积1026万平方米，同比下降39%，环比下降仅10% 2019年同期，好于2020年同期。二线城市商品房成交面积合计5731万平方米，同比下降51%，减少27分别比 2020 年同期和 2019 年同期增长 % 和 38%。三四线城市总成交量为4821万平方米，同比下降与二线城市相近。

值得注意的是，通过对30个重点城市6月成交数据测算，6月一线城市迎来了集中放量期，成交量环比增长55%，跌幅回落。同比下降30%，上半年同比下降37%。二、三线环比反弹17%，同比下降44%，累计同比下降50%。整体成交回升不如供给，购房信心恢复尚未达到预期。

3.成都、西安累计同比降幅不足20%，速佛等新政效果初显

（本节有删节）

在成交面积前10名城市中，成都以602万平方米位居榜首，同比仅下降20%。上半年杭州供应萎缩导致成交大幅下滑，排名从2021年的第一跌至第七；上海和西安的韧性更强。以上海为例，即使疫情屡次受到影响，4-5月也是静态控制的。 5月成交量仍达286万平方米，位居全国前十。重庆和徐州跌出榜单，主要是市场低迷。

表：2022年1-5月商品房成交面积TOP10城市（单位：万平方米）（略）

聚焦6月数据，城市分化格局不变：一线城市京沪深成交环比增加，京沪迎来补交释放疫情后需求，环比增长50%以上；二、三线城市中，成都韧性更强，是唯一一个同比和同比均增长的城市，累计同比降幅收窄至14个%。在利好政策的不断发酵下，青岛、佛山、南京、苏州的成交环比出现不同程度的回升。相比之下，重庆、福州、大连、南宁、昆明的整体成交仍处于低位徘徊。并且累计同比下降超过40%。杭州主要受限于供应萎缩PC28有正规官网吗？，交易释放空间不大。

4

新房均价：上涨城市递减，增速逐月收窄，一线持仓增加，三四线城市加速下行

（本节有删节）

1.70个城市房价同比下降，5月底同比下降城市达46个

（本节有删节）

从国家统计局公布的70个大中城市房价指数同比月度变化来看，2022年上半年，全国整体处于较大下行房价压力，二三四线城市房价下行趋势加剧。

天津、沉阳、大连、合肥、福州、厦门、郑州、武汉等70个大中城市房价同比跌幅居第二一线城市，扬州、温州、九江、洛阳、惠州等地房价同比由正转负。

具体而言，北京、上海等一线城市受疫情影响，新房成交接近停滞，房价变动稳中有因。在广州，同比增速从4.5%收窄至1.0%。二线城市分化明显。 5月杭州同比上涨6.1%，涨幅最大，西安、长沙分别上涨4.9%和4.8；郑州同比下降6.5%。三四线城市下行压力普遍加大。 5月份，仅无锡、徐州、金华、赣州、三亚房价同比上涨，80%以上的大中三四线城市同比下跌。

2.70城房价仅一线上涨，5月二三线跌幅收窄

（本节有删节）

从国家统计局公布的70个大中城市房价指数环比变化格局来看，5月份全国房价总体呈现企稳迹象。 2022年前5个月，70个大中城市以及二、三、四线城市房价均呈现环比下降趋势。其中，三者的跌幅在4月份达到最大，分别为0.3%、0.56%和0.06%。从环比下降的城市数量来看，5月份下降的城市数量减少到43个，但仍超过70个大中城市的一半。

5月，随着调控政策和信贷监管的进一步放开，三四线城市营销优惠取消带动5月环比下降至0.13pct 但安庆、泉州、九江、烟台、南充等城市环比降幅仍在扩大。

二线城市房价环比在“小幅上涨”和“小幅下跌”中反复波动，主要原因是各区域市场冷热分布不均城市。例如，前五个月福州、合肥、济南、重庆的房价环比都有小幅波动。

值得注意的是，5月份，共有49个大中城市房价环比上涨或收窄。可见，行情已见底，年中止跌。

3.一线房价同比上涨14%，二线房价持平加剧，三四线房价普遍下跌

从2022年CRIC监测的100个城市新建商品住宅成交均价统计来看，前5个月整体价格同比小幅上涨。从能级来看，2022年前5个月一线城市同比增长14%，尤为显着。二线城市房价走势分化明显，而三四线城市房价普遍同比下降，只有部分强三线城市和弱三四线城市相对独立的楼市同比小幅增长。

分城市看，一线和强三线城市房价涨幅明显，三四线城市房价出现明显回调。 100城市前5个月商品房成交均价涨幅前10名，北京、上海、广州、深圳4个城市均上榜。除少数高价项目网上签约延迟造成的结构性因素外PC蛋蛋信誉群，以上均为2022年上半年市场可接受的二三线城市。更广泛的三四线城市一线城市的房价仍在下跌。尽管房企二季度以来陆续取消销售优惠，但廊坊、香河、宜兴、丽水、中山等城市房价同比跌幅仍超过10%。 （各城市数据见附表3）

5

新房库存：狭义和广义分别维持在6亿和38亿平方米，交易企稳后去清盘周期回落

（本节有删节）

1.商品房待售面积逐月小幅回落至5.54亿平方米，写字楼退役承压

……稍微……

2.百诚6亿平方米窄库存维持高位稳定，脱化周期今年首次降至23个月

（本节有删节）

2022年以来，由于供需疲软，狭义库存持续高位震荡。根据克而瑞监测数据，2022年5月，白城商品房库存60726万平方米，环比减少216万平方米，同比减少216万平方米。上涨 5%。 ,

去净化周期由快速上升转为高位下降。由于5月份地方政府密集出台新政策“撑市”70城二手房价普跌，购房者信心有所恢复，成交环比增加。因此，整体去净化周期也从2022年4月末的24.6个月下降到5月份的23.3个月。

3.苏北三四线库存快速增长，沉阳、大连等弱势二线去库存周期超过3年

关注短期库存压力较大的单一城市。从5月狭义的TOP20总库存来看，主要积压在北方和内陆二线城市。 5月底，青岛、武汉、沉阳的狭义库存均超过2000万平方米。米，本月底位列狭义总库存TOP3。从TOP20同比增速来看，东南沿海弱势三线城市的库存压力已经开始显现。虽然库存基数不大，单城基本在500万平方米以下，但由于短期内成交回调加剧，库存同比增幅在20%以上。 、三明、台州、盐城等都市圈周边城市增幅明显，同比翻番。

从去库存周期来看，我们筛选了5月份去库存周期TOP20城市。除了北海、钦州、宝鸡等城市因历史原因库存积压较大外，还有嘉兴、惠州、珠海、汕头等城市前期需求透支，短线成交低迷导致到一个上升的排毒周期。东北和内陆还有一些二三线城市，如烟台、沉阳、大连、兰州等70城二手房价普跌，脱化周期超过40个月，同比增加，短期内承压。

4.百城广基存量降至38亿平方英尺PC蛋蛋群吧，仅二线持股同比增长3%

……稍微……

6

二手房：自下而上回升，跌幅收窄，苏杭等城市在新房回暖进程中走在前列

（本节有删节）

1.前5个月累计成交量同比下降47%，二季度以来环比跌幅稳步收窄

据克而瑞统计，2022年1月至2022年5月，二手房累计成交面积3799万平方米，同比下降49%。市场规模明显缩水，但降幅略低于新房市场。

从月度来看，1月20个重点城市成交面积同比下降53%，5月降幅收窄至47%。尤其值得一提的是，4月份二手房市场开始回暖，环比跌幅由4月份的9%收窄至5月份的7%。

总体来看，到5月底，全国二手房市场已经完成结构性筑底。一方面，主要城市同比降幅企稳，有收窄迹象；整体市场触底变化的主要原因是4月以来政策和监管环境的快速放松，例如房贷利率和购房首付的下调，以及增值税免征期的变化从5到2出售二手房。

继4、5月份初步触底后，6月份主要城市二手房成交明显回升。 6月份，8个重点城市二手房成交389万平方米，环比增长4%，同比降幅收窄10个百分点至31%。受此带动，8市前6个月累计同比降幅较前5个月收窄3个百分点至45%。

2.疫情影响一线交易27%，下降16pcts，二三线交易超过70%

……稍微……

3.6月苏杭新政环比明显提升哪里找PC蛋蛋官网，神清上半年同比降幅仍超60%

（本节有删节）

前5个月一线城市成交面积同比下降57%。其中，上海累计同比下降74%，主要是受疫情影响，4、5月份成交接近于零。北京5月受疫情影响，5月成交量环比下降36%。受此影响，前5个月累计交易量同比下降34%。由于2021年上半年基数较高，深圳和广州同比分别下降68%和48%。

二线城市前5个月同比下降44%，10个重点城市共成交2206万平方米。与2021年同期相比，各个城市的量都明显减少。例如，前五个月重庆、天津成交量均跌破500万平方米；另一个例子是武汉、南京、合肥、杭州和厦门。值得注意的是，5月份，随着市场信心的回暖和住房成本的降低，杭州、苏州、青岛的成交规模环比都有所上升，其中杭州、青岛的涨幅都在10%以上。

前5个月三四线城市同比下降39%，6个重点城市共成交327万平方米。各城市二手房成交规模普遍下滑。 Except for Dongguan, which fell by 19% year-on-year in the first five months, the other five cities all fell by more than 35%, of which Quzhou fell by 75% year-on-year. In the continuous downward market environment, the second-hand housing buying and selling sentiment was sluggish for a time. It is worth noting that in May, transactions in Foshan and Dongguan rose by 11% and 20% month-on-month respectively, and strong third-tier cities showed signs of bottoming out.

Table: Cumulative sales of second-hand houses in 20 typical cities from January to May 2022 (unit: 10,000 square meters) (omitted)

From June to June, the second-hand housing market transactions in major cities have improved significantly. Except for Shenzhen and Xiamen, which saw a slight month-on-month decrease, the other 6 cities recorded significant month-on-month growth. For example, Qingdao and Hangzhou increased by 100% and 76% month-on-month respectively. Suzhou rose 47% month-on-month, down 2% from the same period in 2021. The impact of the epidemic on Beijing has weakened rapidly, with a month-on-month increase of 4%. After more than half a year of market downturn and several months of policy rescue, the second-hand housing market in major cities showed resilience by the middle of the year, and the market size recovered rapidly.

Looking forward

7

Supply: It is expected to increase significantly compared with the previous month, and Beijing, Shanghai and Hangzhou will focus on heavy volume under the "sell to determine production"

Foreshadowing the second half of 2022, we expect a steady increase in supply. Based on the sluggish market conditions in the first five months, housing companies have a serious mentality of "laying down", and the overall enthusiasm for launching the market is not high. In June, due to the phased control of the epidemic and the introduction of favorable policies, the overall transaction has stabilized and rebounded, and the mentality of housing companies Expectations will also change accordingly, and the supply rhythm will be accelerated. At the same time, we have taken stock of 22 core first- and second-tier cities to implement centralized land supply in 2021. According to the start-up and sales cycle of projects in different cities, as well as the transaction and commencement of centralized land-supply plots in 2021, there will also be a supply peak in the third quarter. .

And the differentiation between different cities is expected to continue to intensify. Under the "determining production by sales", accelerating the sales of new houses and entering the market will become a common decision for real estate companies to enter the market. The high and strong second-tier cities are still the key areas for real estate companies to launch their projects. It has to be said that the land supply in first-tier cities was relatively abundant last year. In 2021, the transaction area of ​​commercial land will increase by 6% year-on-year. In the first half of the year, Beijing and Shanghai had a large backlog due to the impact of the epidemic. Projects for sale are expected to enter the market in the second half of the year.

Weak second- and third-tier cities face stable supply or a slight decline. On the one hand, based on the fact that the transaction and construction area of ​​commercial land in second- and third-tier cities in 2021 will decrease by 26% and 22% year-on-year, respectively, housing companies are not very motivated to acquire land, which is to be developed. The reduction of projects restricts the increase in the supply area of ​​new houses; on the other hand, in the case of tight cash flow of housing companies, more emphasis is placed on concentrating on major tasks, which may reduce the entry of pure new projects in weak second- and third-tier cities. Push and push. In addition, it is worth noting that for weak second- and third-tier cities, the boosting effect of the easing policy is far less than that of the core first- and second-tier cities with abundant purchasing power. Under the circumstance that the overall market transaction has not improved, the enthusiasm of real estate companies will also be negatively affected.

8

Transaction: The overall bottoming, local recovery, decline significantly narrowed, first-line maintenance, second-line rotation recovery

At present, the effect of the superposition of favorable policies has begun to show in some cities such as Suzhou and Foshan. Based on the overall policy tone of stabilizing real estate and the premise of heavy supply, it is expected that the transaction in the second half of 2022 is expected to gradually come out of the trough. Marginal recovery, the year-on-year and cumulative year-on-year declines of transactions are expected to continue to narrow, and the annual transaction scale will show a high decline, with a year-on-year decline of 15%-20%.

The transaction volume in first-tier cities increased steadily. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen are basically supply-oriented markets with relatively abundant purchasing power. Improvement projects in core areas are “hard to find”, and the overall market is very popular. At present, Shanghai and Beijing are mainly affected by the short-term epidemic, and Guangzhou and Shenzhen are mainly due to the intensified wait-and-see mood of home buyers. As long as the supply in the core areas increases in the second half of the year and the purchase restrictions in the peripheral areas are loosened, the overall market recovery is a high probability event.

The transaction volume in second-tier cities is expected to remain the same or slightly increase compared with last year, and the market differentiation in different cities continues to intensify. First, cities such as Hangzhou and Hefei, which have high market popularity in the short term, are expected to continue the high fever; secondly, cities such as Xi'an and Chengdu, whose market conditions are independent and self-contained, are expected to steadily increase their transactions; then Nanjing, Suzhou, Ningbo and other fundamentals are relatively good. Cities that are rich in wealth are expected to usher in a recovery under the continuous fermentation of favorable policies; finally, weak second-tier cities such as Zhengzhou, Nanning, Kunming, Fuzhou, Jinan, Qingdao and other weak second-tier cities are unlikely to see a full recovery if they do not continue to increase their easing policies. , the peak of purchasing power is the core issue. The speed of economic recovery determines residents' expectations for home purchases. It is judged that the overall housing market in these cities will continue to be sluggish.

The continuation of the recovery in the third and fourth lines remains to be seen, and most cities may continue to experience sluggish market conditions. At present, the strong third-tier companies such as Foshan and Wuxi have shown signs of recovery. The number of visits has increased steadily, and the transaction volume has increased slightly, which has led to a recovery in the opening rate. However, we believe that this may be a short-term surge in transactions brought about by the intensive introduction of policies. Whether it can continue to increase the volume remains to be seen later. For cities such as Yancheng, Taizhou, Zhumadian, and Heze, which demand comprehensive overdrafts, even if there are layers of favorable policy support , the short-term transaction is also difficult to improve, and the trend of low-level consolidation will continue in 2022.

For the second-hand housing market, based on the significant increase in second-hand housing transactions in major cities month-on-month in June, we believe that the second-hand housing market will rebound along with the new housing market. The overall transaction scale will remain at a historically low level in the third quarter, and the full-year transaction scale will be stable with some decline compared to 2021.

The first-tier cities Shanghai and Beijing are expected to recover rapidly after the end of the epidemic, and Shenzhen's second-hand housing guide price is expected to increase in size after adjustment; cities in the second- and third-tier cities that have introduced or will be introduced to favor second-hand housing transactions such as Hangzhou, Nanjing, Suzhou The market size of other cities is expected to grow positively year-on-year, and the recovery speed of the transaction scale in other cities will be slower than that of the new housing market.

9

House prices: The overall expectation remains low year-on-year, the first and second tiers are increasing month-on-month, and the third and fourth tiers have turned from falling to stable

It can be seen from the average transaction price of new houses in 70 large and medium-sized cities and the average transaction price of commercial residential buildings in 100 cities. On the other hand, since the second quarter, high-energy-level cities have shown a trend of bottoming out and rebounding.

Therefore, we judge that the national overall housing price level in the third quarter will expand year-on-year and increase steadily month-on-month. First-tier cities will still maintain a large year-on-year growth under the support of high-priced housing listings; as more cities adjust their price limits, the differentiation of housing prices among second-tier cities will ease, and housing prices will rise steadily month-on-month; third- and fourth-tier cities With the bottoming out of the transaction surface, the house price will turn from falling to stable on a month-on-month basis. However, it needs to be emphasized that the housing prices in cities of all energy levels will remain at historically low levels in the third quarter. Except for a small number of cities, there will be no short-term surge in the average transaction price.

10

Inventory: The first and second lines of the core will remain stable and decline slightly, and the risk of the third and fourth lines will be prolonged and the risk of destocking will intensify

Forecasting the second half of 2022, we believe that supply and demand are expected to stabilize and rebound, but the market heat is expected to be difficult to return to the peak period of last year, so the overall inventory in the narrow sense may continue to remain high and stable.

The overall inventory in core first- and second-tier cities is expected to remain stable or decrease slightly. Especially in cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Hangzhou, Hefei, etc., which are currently hot in the market, due to the relatively abundant purchasing power, the shortage of supply continues to intensify. However, the large-scale supply in the core area will basically usher in an explosive growth in transactions, and the narrow-sense inventory is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level.

However, for the vast third- and fourth-tier cities with lack of fundamental support and serious lack of purchasing power, such as Yantai, Beihai, Baoji, etc., these are basically cities with net population outflow. At present, the digestion cycle of commercial housing is more than 50 months. The supply is no longer in heavy volume. Judging from the current sluggish transaction trend, the risk of medium and long-term inventory is still relatively large.

In terms of general inventory, it is expected to remain high and stable. On the one hand, cities whose land auctions have been postponed due to the epidemic are expected to continue to increase their volume in the later period. The transaction scale of residential land may be similar to the trend of new house transactions, which will continue to increase steadily. On the other hand, the confidence of housing enterprises to start construction has recovered slightly. The newly started area in May reached 118.89 million square meters, up 20% month-on-month; the two-phase combination, the overall number of unconstructed plots in the second half of the year is expected to remain flat or slightly in the first half of the year. Slight drop.

Appendix 1: Supply of new commercial residential buildings by energy level in 100 typical cities from January to May 2022 (unit: 10,000 square meters) (omitted)

Appendix 2: Transactions of new commercial residential buildings by energy level in 100 typical cities from January to May 2022 (unit: 10,000 square meters) (omitted)

Appendix 3: Average transaction price of new commercial residential buildings in 100 cities from January to May 2022 (unit: yuan/square meter) (omitted)

Appendix 4: Narrow-sense inventory and digestion cycle of commercial housing in 100 key cities at the end of May 2022 and its changes (unit: 10,000 square meters, month) (omitted)

Appendix 5: Generalized inventory of commercial housing in 100 key cities at the end of May 2022 and its changes (unit: 10,000 square meters) (omitted)

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